For years, organizations have relied on traditional risk management tools: long Excel spreadsheets with “likelihood” and “impact” columns, sometimes even with associated preventive or mitigation actions, updated once or twice a year. Let’s be honest—how much attention do these spreadsheets really get from top management?
A more crucial question is: how effective are these tools in a world defined by rapid change and uncertainty? Aren't they providing a false sense of security, and thus endangering our organizations?
The lessons from Swissair and Credit Suisse
Two high-profile cases—Swissair and Credit Suisse—offer dramatic lessons on what happens when organizations fail in understanding and facing reality. Surely both companies had audited risk management in place; so there must be something wrong with traditional practices, especially when coupled with governance and leadership flaws.
Interestingly, the two cases offer contrasting outcomes:
- Swissair (2001): The airline’s bankruptcy wasn’t just a financial failure—Authorities underestimated what was truly at stake, and the consequences were irreversible. It damaged Switzerland’s global reputation, financial resilience, and management credibility.
- Credit Suisse (2023): In contrast, the Swiss government acted decisively, recognizing that the stakes went far beyond one bank. By intervening early, they preserved financial stability, saved thousands of jobs, and might well have created a stronger competitive entity in the process.
The difference? a clear understanding of what was at stake and then the ability to act decisively in response to changing circumstances. If you don't frame it correctly, then you will come up with a solution to the wrong problem, therefore very likely the wrong solution.
Why traditional risk management falls short
Risk management can no longer be a peripheral exercise relegated to long spreadsheets. In today’s volatile environment, it must become a central leadership and decision-making tool, fully embedded into organizational strategy.
To thrive in uncertainty, organizations (and governments) need to combine two critical capabilities:
1️ Situational Intelligence (SITINT): The ability to identify context changes and understand their impact on your specific situation.
2️ Strategic Agility: The capacity to adapt your mission, vision, strategy, or goals dynamically to survive—and thrive—in changing conditions.
Modern risk management requires constant monitoring to detect weak signals, assess their implications through situational intelligence, and execute smart strategies with agility.
A new approach: The 4 Points of Tension Model:
Here’s a key insight: risks may not be the most effective entry point for managing volatility. Instead, start by asking:
- What is truly at stake for your organization (TP1)?
- Which risks derive from the stakes ? (TP2)
- How can you leverage opportunities (TP3) while engaging stakeholders (TP4) who hold the keys to mitigating risks or driving positive outcomes?
This shift in mindset transforms risk management from a defensive exercise into a proactive strategy for resilience and growth.
See below the 4 Points of Tension situational intelligence model.
Adapting to volatility: your next steps
To navigate extreme volatility successfully:
✅ Integrate situational intelligence (the 4 Points of Tension model) into your decision-making processes.
✅ Embed strategic agility (your actual response to situational intelligence insights) into your organizational culture—it must become a way of life, not an exceptional response.
Invitation to Connect
How is your organization managing risks in this volatile landscape? Share your experiences on LinkedIn or reach out to explore how strategic agility can redefine your approach to risk management.